1. The need for massive scale for carbon storage

- Well thank you, Patricia, and thank you to the SEG for hosting this presentation. It's a pleasure to be talking to you about this issue today. It's an issue of truly global importance. I've added, as you can see, the subtitle of meeting the geologic challenge of massive scale CO2 sequestration. So the first thing I want to do this morning is actually define what I mean by massive scale. I mean, that's a, it's a sort of a hyperbolic term to say something is massive and I want to give you an idea of the numbers we're actually talking about. Then I wanna switch and look at the potential for storing large amounts of carbon in saline aquifers, then storing large amounts of carbon in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, and then conclude with sort of where we are today and what the outlook is for what's going to be happening say, over the next decade or so. Just to emphasize these volumes, the CCS industry storing carbon in the subsurface is predicted to reach close to a gigaton per-year by 2030. That's only nine years out, as you know. Achieving the International Energy Agency, the IEA's sustainable development goal says we're gonna reach 10, excuse me, six gigatons per year by 2050. Now to give you an idea of what this means in terms of a volume, in the earth under reservoir conditions, CO2's gonna be super critical. Its density is gonna be about 60% that of water so it's kind of like a liquid. And six gigatons of super critical CO2 is volumetrically equivalent to about twice the scale of global oil production. It's an enormous volume, you know, that we're looking at just 30 years out. Now, even to reach the 2030 goal, we have to increase the scale of what's currently happening globally, which is about 40 million tons per year. We have to increase that by 25-fold in a decade or less. And it also means that while we have 20 commercially viable CCS projects today that are going on, we need 70 to 100 new projects added per year to achieve this goal. So it's an enormous endeavor and it's gonna require something like a trillion dollar investment. But why are we talking about this? We're talking about this because as different organizations, including the IEA, have looked at decarbonization pathways, the conclusion is that reaching net zero will be virtually impossible without CCUS at a very large scale. Now I've used this graphic for a couple of years. It's a little bit outdated. It was originally put together in 2016, published in 2017. And then what it shows is CO2 storage as a function of time from the power industry, industrial use in general, and other uses of energy. Now this looks like a cumulative plot but it's not. It's the amount of storage that has be be accomplished each year to meet the IPCC goal of limiting greenhouse warming to two-degrees C. Where we are today is barely off the horizontal line. We're at 40 million tons per year. In this representation, by about 2030, we have to be about at a gigaton which is this 25-fold. At this time, we were talking about reaching 3.5 gigatons or a volume equivalent to global oil production of about 30 billion barrels a year, at about, between 2035 and 2040. But now, of course, people are moving, you know, the line is even steeper and we're talking about doing this by 2030. And then by mid-century, we're up around twice the scale of global oil production, so it's simply enormous.